Analysis of Canada’s 2018 HIV Surveillance Report

 

 

In December of 2019, researchers from the Public Health Agency of Canada released the 2018 HIV Surveillance Report. In the Canadian Communicable Disease Report (CCDR) article, the researchers downplay the impact of rising HIV rates, and indeed even downplay the existence of such an increase. Canada’s HIV response needs to be strengthened to address these realities, and not be allowed to languish in an atmosphere of complacency. The fight against HIV is not over, and we cannot be complacent when an average of 7 new HIV diagnoses are given daily.

Number of new infections

Overall, there were 2,561 new HIV diagnoses, an increase of 8.2% from 2017. We can note the following from the data given on number of cases and rate of infection:

• The number of new infections had been going down since 2009, but have been going back up for the last five years.
• There has been a 25.5% increase in the number of new HIV infections since 2014.
• The rate of infections per 100,000 people has increased by 19% between 2014 and 2018.

Geographic Distribution

In general, the interpretation in the CCDR article is straightforward. We can note the following from the data given in the article:

• The two provinces with the largest proportion of new infections are Ontario (1,003 new infections, 39.2%  of the overall total) and Quebec (766 new infections, 29.9% of the overall total).
• The two provinces with the highest rate of infection are Saskatchewan (14.9 new infections per 100,000 people) and Quebec (9.1 new infections per 100,000 people).
• The difference between the largest share of infections and the highest rate of infection demonstrates that not only is reducing the number of infections important, but also taking into account the impact that HIV can have on a community when rates of infection are high.

Age distribution

In the supplementary tables, the information on age is broken down by both gender and geographical location. We can note the following from the data:

• Children aged under 15 years, adults aged 20-29, adults aged 30-39, adults aged 40-49, and adults aged 50+ saw an increase in the number of new infections from 2017 to 2018, while youth aged 15-19 saw a decrease in the number of new infections.
• Youth aged 15-29 accounted for:
  • 24% (616) of cases in 2018
  • 23% (545) of cases in 2017
  • 25% (574) of cases in 2016
  • 27% (558) of cases in 2015
  • 23% (475) of cases in 2014
  • 24% (504) of cases in 2013
• Adults aged 20-29 had the largest increase in the total number of cases (47 new infections).

Sex/Gender Distribution

Note: The gender binary was assumed in much of the data given. In some charts there was a third option, but it lumped together sex not reported, transsexual and transgender.

• Since 2012, the proportion of people newly diagnosed with HIV who identify as female has remained steady at around 22-25%, but increased to 29% in 2018.

Number of reported HIV Cases, 1996-2018

Number of cases data taken from Supplementary Tables 1 and 2, percentages calculated.

Year	# of cases	% change from previous year	rate per 100,000	% change from previous year
1996	2712		9.1
1997	2444	-9.9%	8.1	-11.0%
1998	2262	-7.4%	7.5	-7.4%
1999	2176	-3.8%	7.1	-5.3%
2000	2062	-5.2%	6.7	-5.6%
2001	2195	6.5%	7.1	6.0%
2002	2436	11.0%	7.7	8.5%
2003	2441	0.2%	7.7	0.0%
2004	2493	2.1%	7.8	1.3%
2005	2455	-1.5%	7.6	-2.6%
2006	2509	2.2%	7.7	1.3%
2007	2403	-4.2%	7.3	-5.2%
2008	2599	8.2%	7.8	6.8%
2009	2364	-9.0%	7	-10.3%
2010	2300	-2.7%	6.7	-4.3%
2011	2276	-1.0%	6.6	-1.5%
2012	2073	-8.9%	5.9	-10.6%
2013	2060	-0.6%	5.8	-1.7%
2014	2053	-0.3%	5.8	0.0%
2015	2100	2.3%	5.8	0.0%
2016	2344	11.6%	6.4	10.3%
2017	2402	2.5%	6.5	1.6%
2018	2561	6.6%	6.9	6.2%

 

 Sex/Gender data given

Number of cases data taken from Supplementary Tables 1 and 2, percentages calculated.

	Males		Females		Sex not reported/ transsexual/transgender		Total
	Cases	%	Cases	%	Cases	%	Cases
2006	1,793	72.2%	683	27.5%	6	0.2%	2,482
2007	1,776	74.9%	589	24.8%	7	0.3%	2,372
2008	1,903	74.2%	658	25.7%	4	0.2%	2,565
2009	1,740	74.4%	593	25.4%	6	0.3%	2,339
2010	1,747	76.8%	516	22.7%	11	0.5%	2,274
2011	1,713	76.1%	527	23.4%	11	0.5%	2,251
2012	1,574	76.6%	476	23.2%	5	0.2%	2,055
2013	1,591	78.2%	435	21.4%	9	0.4%	2,035
2014	1,543	75.6%	491	24.1%	7	0.3%	2,041
2015	1,584	75.9%	498	23.9%	4	0.2%	2,086
2016	1,781	76.5%	540	23.2%	7	0.3%	2,328
2017	1,777	75.1%	584	24.7%	5	0.2%	2,366
2018	1,803	70.4%	749	29.2%	9	0.4%	2,561